FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Lech Poznan 1–1 SunderlandMatch recap · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Lech Poznan win
34%
Draw
24%
Result
Sunderland win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.7
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.