FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Sunderland 0–2 Brighton & Hove AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brighton & Hove Albion or draw at 68%. Bawler had Sunderland at 32%, the draw at 26% and Brighton & Hove Albion at 42%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
32%
Draw
26%
Brighton & Hove Albion win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.