FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Manchester City 5–3 SunderlandMatch recap · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
63%
Result
Draw
22%
Sunderland win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
5 – 3
Total 8 (+5.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 4.3
From the match itself
The match produced 5.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.