FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 79%. Bawler had Middlesbrough at 57%, the draw at 22% and Cardiff City at 21%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
57%
Draw
22%
Result
Cardiff City win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.