FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Stoke City 2–3 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 77%. Bawler had Stoke City at 23%, the draw at 26% and Middlesbrough at 51%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stoke City win
23%
Draw
26%
Middlesbrough win
51%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Middlesbrough or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.