FT · England: Championship · Friday, 23 October 2026
Bolton Wanderers 1–5 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 73%. Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 27%, the draw at 25% and Middlesbrough at 48%. The match finished 1–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
27%
Draw
25%
Middlesbrough win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 4.2
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Middlesbrough or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Middlesbrough's 0.49 expected-goals edge and 48% win probability make Over 1.5 Goals (79% forecast) the model's clearest conviction, as both sides combine for 2.94 xG in a fixture tilted toward the visitors."