Match prediction·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Friday 14 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Sporting CP vs Vitória de Guimaraes

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
61.0% home25.3% draw13.7% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Sporting CPstepVitória de Guimaraes
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Sporting average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Vitória de Guimaraes average 5.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Not both teams to score
52%
Over 3.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Sporting CP fixtures & form →Vitória de Guimaraes fixtures & form →

Sporting vs Vitória de Guimaraes — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sporting and Vitória de Guimaraes — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sporting 61% · draw 25% · Vitória de Guimaraes 14%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Sporting predictions & form →Vitória de Guimaraes predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.