> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Friday 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Senegal vs Iraq
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because Senegal's 2.11 xG dwarfs Iraq's 0.95, creating a 1.16-goal gap that translates to heavy attacking output.
Win probability
60.2% home25.2% draw14.6% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
SenegalstepIraq
2.06Base xG Β· rolling 26-match0.95
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
2.06Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses0.95
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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5
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10
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6
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Senegal 5β0 Iraq
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+