FT · USA: MLS · Friday, 17 July 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 1–5 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 17 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 56%, draw at 26%, Portland Timbers at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-5. The model's headline call was Seattle Sounders FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
56%
Draw
26%
Timbers win
18%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.05 – 1.13
Total 3.18
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+2.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 84% probability—Seattle's 2.05 xG and 0.92 edge in shot quality over Portland should produce the second goal required."