Scotland vs Morocco
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals projects at 74% backed by a combined 2.74 xG and Morocco's attacking threat through Hakimi (22% of team xG) overwhelming Scotland's 1.24 expected output.
Scotland average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Scotland vs Morocco — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Scotland and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Scotland 28% · draw 31% · Morocco 40%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.