Bawler / Scotland vs Brazil / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Scotland 0–3 BrazilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Scotland
0–3
Brazil win
Brazil
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Scotland at 18%, draw at 28%, Brazil at 54%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Brazil.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Scotland win
18%
Draw
28%
Brazil win
54%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.01 – 1.87
Total 2.89
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 4.02x
  • Scott McTominay 1+ Shot✓
  • Over 2.5 Goals✓
  • Over 8.5 Corners✓
  • X2✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because Brazil's 1.87 xG and Scotland's 1.01 xG combine to 2.89 total, a 0.86-goal cushion that makes the threshold highly likely."

> More from Bawler