What we expect
In plain English
SC Freiburg are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Schalke 04, and Schalke 04 have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
SC Freiburg to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model rates this match: SC Freiburg are favoured (62% win probability vs 16% for Schalke 04, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is SC Freiburg 2-0 Schalke 04 (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.96.
How does Bawler predict SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives SC Freiburg 62%, the draw 22% and Schalke 04 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.04 and away expected goals 0.93.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.96. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).