FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
SC Freiburg 3–2 JablonecMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg to win at 68%. Bawler had SC Freiburg at 68%, the draw at 20% and Jablonec at 11%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Freiburg win
68%
Result
Draw
20%
Jablonec win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.7
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
SC Freiburg to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.