FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
FC Cologne 0–0 Schalke 04Match recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cologne or draw at 73%. Bawler had FC Cologne at 47%, the draw at 26% and Schalke 04 at 27%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cologne win
47%
Draw
26%
Result
Schalke 04 win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
FC Cologne or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Cologne's 0.45 xG advantage translates to Over 1.5 Goals at 77% confidence, suggesting the hosts' attacking edge will produce a multi-goal contest despite Schalke's defensive struggles."