FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 LA GalaxyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 48%, draw at 28%, LA Galaxy at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
48%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Galaxy win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.85 – 1.29
Total 3.15
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% because San Jose's 1.85 xG and superior 0.56 xG edge over Galaxy creates sustained attacking pressure despite Riqui Puig's creative threat for the visitors."