FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
San Diego FC 1–0 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 35%, draw at 30%, FC Dallas at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was FC Dallas to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Dallas win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.53
Total 3.05
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because both sides project near-identical attacking threat—San Diego 1.52 xG, Dallas 1.53—forcing an evenly-matched offensive duel."