Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 26 Jul, 01:30 UTC

San Diego FC vs FC Dallas

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because both sides project near-identical attacking threat—San Diego 1.52 xG, Dallas 1.53—forcing an evenly-matched offensive duel.

📊 Win probability
34.9% home29.5% draw35.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
San Diego FCstepFC Dallas
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.52Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.53

San Diego average 6.1 corners per game at home this season (28 competitive matches). Dallas average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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0
5
7
6
3
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1
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11
8
4
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1
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8
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

San Diego vs Dallas — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between San Diego and Dallas — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: San Diego 35% · draw 30% · Dallas 36%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
San Diego FC 10 FC Dallas
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.