Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction — LaLiga · Sat 5 Sept · 17:30 UK

LaLiga · Sat 5 Sept · 17:30 UK
Rayo Vallecano 55Draw 25Racing Santander 20
The call
55%
Rayo Vallecano to win
2.7
Goals expected
13d 16hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Rayo Vallecano or draw80%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
BTTS52%
Rayo Vallecano win to nil31%
Racing Santander or draw45%
Under 3.5 goals71%
Correct score 1–011%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D W W L L D
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5RAY 4 · D 0 · RAC 1
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Jul 2020Racing Santander 1–2 Rayo Vallecano
Sept 2019Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Racing Santander
Mar 2012Rayo Vallecano 4–2 Racing Santander
Dec 2011Rayo Vallecano 4–3 Racing Santander
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Common questions

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

Bawler's model rates this match: Rayo Vallecano are favoured (55% win probability vs 20% for Racing Santander, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Racing Santander (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.74.

How does Bawler predict Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Rayo Vallecano 55%, the draw 25% and Racing Santander 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.77 and away expected goals 0.97.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.74. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →Rayo Vallecano form →Racing Santander form →