FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Racing Santander 3–2 ElcheMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 28 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Racing Santander at 48%, draw at 26%, Elche at 26%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Racing Santander.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Santander win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Elche win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.17
Total 2.85
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost