FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Racing Santander 3–2 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Racing Santander or draw at 74%. Bawler had Racing Santander at 48%, the draw at 26% and Elche at 26%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Racing Santander win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Elche win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.