FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
62%
Result
Draw
21%
Rayo Vallecano win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.