FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Valencia 0–0 Athletic ClubMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Valencia or draw at 66%. Bawler had Valencia at 38%, the draw at 28% and Athletic Club at 34%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
38%
Draw
28%
Result
Athletic Club win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.6 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.