FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Athletic ClubMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rayo Vallecano or draw at 71%. Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 44%, the draw at 27% and Athletic Club at 29%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rayo Vallecano win
44%
Draw
27%
Result
Athletic Club win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.