Levante vs Athletic Club prediction — LaLiga · Wed 16 Sept · 20:30 UK

LaLiga · Wed 16 Sept · 20:30 UK
Levante 41Draw 27Athletic Club 32
The call
68%
Levante or draw
2.8
Goals expected
12d 10hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Levante to score78%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Athletic Club to score73%
Under 3.5 goals69%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Levante
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Carlos Espí
FW · 3.5 shots expected
97%
75%
40%
Etta Eyong
FW · 2.6 shots expected
93%
70%
34%
Iván Romero
FW · 2.3 shots expected
90%
55%
19%
Roger Brugué
MF · 2.1 shots expected
88%
47%
13%
Kareem Tunde
MF · 1.6 shots expected
80%
27%
4%
Víctor García
MF · 1.5 shots expected
78%
44%
12%
Athletic Club
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Gorka Guruzeta
FW · 2.8 shots expected
94%
65%
28%
Nico Williams
MF · 2.0 shots expected
87%
49%
15%
Iñaki Williams
MF · 2.0 shots expected
86%
47%
13%
Oihan Sancet
MF · 2.0 shots expected
86%
43%
11%
Unai Gómez
MF · 1.7 shots expected
82%
41%
10%
Alex Berenguer
MF · 1.6 shots expected
79%
47%
13%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W W L L D W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5LEV 0 · D 1 · ATH 4
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

Feb 2026Athletic Club 4–2 Levante
Nov 2025Levante 0–2 Athletic Club
Mar 2022Athletic Club 3–1 Levante
Nov 2021Levante 0–0 Athletic Club
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Common questions

Who will win Levante vs Athletic Club?

Bawler's model rates this match: Levante are favoured (41% win probability vs 32% for Athletic Club, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Levante vs Athletic Club?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Levante 1-1 Athletic Club (12.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.80.

How does Bawler predict Levante vs Athletic Club?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Levante 41%, the draw 27% and Athletic Club 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Club?

BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.50 and away expected goals 1.31.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Levante vs Athletic Club?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.80. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →Levante form →Athletic Club form →