FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano 0–3 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Rayo Vallecano or draw at 79%. Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 55%, the draw at 24% and Elche at 21%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rayo Vallecano win
55%
Draw
24%
Elche win
21%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Rayo Vallecano or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Rayo's 0.78 expected-goals advantage makes the Rayo Vallecano or draw forecast (79% confidence) their most likely outcome, as the hosts should dominate possession and chances without necessarily breaking down a defensive Elche."