What we expect
In plain English
PSV Eindhoven are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Heerenveen, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
PSV Eindhoven to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's model rates this match: PSV Eindhoven are favoured (69% win probability vs 14% for Heerenveen, 18% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Heerenveen (9.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.73.
How does Bawler predict PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives PSV Eindhoven 69%, the draw 18% and Heerenveen 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.60 and away expected goals 1.12.
Over or under 2.5 goals in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.73. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).