FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 16 October 2026
Heerenveen 4–0 ExcelsiorMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 16 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heerenveen or draw at 73%. Bawler had Heerenveen at 49%, the draw at 24% and Excelsior at 27%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heerenveen win
49%
Result
Draw
24%
Excelsior win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Heerenveen or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.