FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 24 October 2026
ADO Den Haag 2–3 HeerenveenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heerenveen or draw at 73%. Bawler had ADO Den Haag at 27%, the draw at 25% and Heerenveen at 48%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
ADO Den Haag win
27%
Draw
25%
Heerenveen win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Heerenveen or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 80% call, driven by Heerenveen's 0.45 xG advantage and 47% win probability that should produce multiple scoring chances across the ninety minutes."