FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 17 October 2026
ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven to win at 72%. Bawler had ADO Den Haag at 11%, the draw at 17% and PSV Eindhoven at 72%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
ADO Den Haag win
11%
Result
Draw
17%
PSV Eindhoven win
72%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.6
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
PSV Eindhoven to win
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.