FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
FC Porto 0–1 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto or draw at 78%. Bawler had FC Porto at 55%, the draw at 23% and PSV Eindhoven at 22%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
55%
Draw
23%
PSV Eindhoven win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Porto's 0.86 expected-goals advantage and 57% win probability make Over 1.5 Goals the model's high-confidence call at 83%, with striker Samu Aghehowa generating 28% of the home side's attacking threat."