FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was RB Leipzig or draw at 76%. Bawler had RB Leipzig at 54%, the draw at 22% and PSV Eindhoven at 24%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
RB Leipzig win
54%
Result
Draw
22%
PSV Eindhoven win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.4
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Missed
Medium confidence
RB Leipzig to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.