FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Shakhtar DonetskMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 68%, draw at 19%, Shakhtar Donetsk at 14%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was PSV Eindhoven to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eindhoven win
68%
Draw
19%
Actual ✓
Donetsk win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.38 – 0.99
Total 3.37
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"PSV's home win at 68% reflects a decisive 1.39 xG advantage, with Luuk de Jong's striker presence targeting an overwhelmed Shakhtar defence that managed just 0.99 expected goals."