What we expect
In plain English
Millwall are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Preston North End have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Millwall or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Preston North End vs Millwall?
Bawler's model rates this match: Millwall are favoured (43% win probability vs 32% for Preston North End, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Preston North End vs Millwall?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Preston North End 1-1 Millwall (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.00.
How does Bawler predict Preston North End vs Millwall?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Preston North End 32%, the draw 26% and Millwall 43%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Preston North End vs Millwall?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.38 and away expected goals 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Preston North End vs Millwall?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.00. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).