FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 13 October 2026

Birmingham City 4–0 Preston North EndMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026

Birmingham City
4–0
Birmingham City win
Preston North End

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Birmingham City or draw at 80%. Bawler had Birmingham City at 56%, the draw at 24% and Preston North End at 21%. The match finished 4–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Birmingham City win
56%
Result
Draw
24%
Preston North End win
21%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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