FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Wrexham 4–1 Preston North EndMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wrexham or draw at 75%. Bawler had Wrexham at 50%, the draw at 25% and Preston North End at 25%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wrexham win
50%
Result
Draw
25%
Preston North End win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Preston North End to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.