Parma vs Monza prediction — Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 14:00 UK
Parma 36Draw 29Monza 34
The call
36%
Parma to win
2.4
Goals expected
13d 19hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Parma or draw66%
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
BTTS49%
Parma win to nil22%
Monza or draw64%
Under 3.5 goals78%
Correct score 1–113%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L L W W L
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5PAR 1 · D 3 · MON 0
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Mar 2025Monza 1–1 Parma
Dec 2024Parma 2–1 Monza
Mar 2022Monza 1–1 Parma
Oct 2021Parma 0–0 Monza
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Common questions

Who will win Parma vs Monza?

Bawler's model rates this match: Parma are favoured (36% win probability vs 34% for Monza, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Parma vs Monza?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Parma 1-1 Monza (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.40.

How does Bawler predict Parma vs Monza?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Parma 36%, the draw 29% and Monza 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?

BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.22 and away expected goals 1.18.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Parma vs Monza?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.40. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Parma form →Monza form →