Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC prediction — MLS · Sun 13 Sept · 00:30 UK

MLS · Sun 13 Sept · 00:30 UK
Orlando City SC 53Draw 24Toronto FC 23
The call
77%
Orlando City SC or draw
3.0
Goals expected
14d 09hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Orlando City SC to score84%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Toronto FC to score69%
Under 3.5 goals64%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W L W D L W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ORL 1 · D 0 · TOR 4
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

Jun 2025Orlando City B 1–2 Toronto FC II
Apr 2024Orlando City B 1–2 Toronto FC II
Jun 2023Toronto FC II 3–0 Orlando City B
Apr 2023Orlando City B 3–2 Toronto FC II
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Common questions

Who will win Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

Bawler's model rates this match: Orlando City SC are favoured (53% win probability vs 23% for Toronto FC, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Orlando City SC 1-1 Toronto FC (11.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.02.

How does Bawler predict Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Orlando City SC 53%, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.86 and away expected goals 1.16.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.02. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

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All fixtures & results →Orlando City SC form →Toronto FC form →