Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth prediction — Premier League · Sat 5 Sept · 12:30 UK

Premier League · Sat 5 Sept · 12:30 UK
Newcastle United 42Draw 25AFC Bournemouth 33
The call
42%
Newcastle United to win
3.1
Goals expected
13d 11hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Newcastle United or draw67%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals60%
BTTS62%
Newcastle United win to nil19%
AFC Bournemouth or draw58%
Under 3.5 goals63%
Correct score 1–111%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L W D W L
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.2 / match
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Common questions

Who will win Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?

Bawler's model rates this match: Newcastle United are favoured (42% win probability vs 33% for AFC Bournemouth, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Newcastle United 1-1 AFC Bournemouth (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.10.

How does Bawler predict Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Newcastle United 42%, the draw 25% and AFC Bournemouth 33%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?

BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.45.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.10. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Premier League table →
All fixtures & results →Newcastle United form →AFC Bournemouth form →