FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Newcastle United 3–2 West Bromwich AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United to win at 70%. Bawler had Newcastle United at 70%, the draw at 19% and West Bromwich Albion at 11%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Newcastle United win
70%
Result
Draw
19%
West Bromwich Albion win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.8
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Newcastle United to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.