FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Manchester City 2–1 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Manchester City at 53%, draw at 23%, AFC Bournemouth at 24%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Manchester City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
53%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Bournemouth win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 1.24
Total 3.20
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost