FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Manchester City 2–1 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City or draw at 77%. Bawler had Manchester City at 53%, the draw at 23% and AFC Bournemouth at 24%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
53%
Result
Draw
23%
AFC Bournemouth win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Manchester City to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.