FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
AFC Bournemouth 1–1 EvertonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 51%, draw at 24%, Everton at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was AFC Bournemouth to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bournemouth win
51%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Everton win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.86 – 1.24
Total 3.10
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Everton chases European qualification while Bournemouth has nothing to play for, yet the hosts' 1.87 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals (82% forecast) the standout call."