FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 38%, draw at 30%, Chicago Fire FC at 32%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward New York City FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.40
Total 2.95
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 77% probability because both sides project nearly even attacking threat—NYCFC's 1.55 xG and Chicago's 1.40 xG combine for a 2.95-goal fixture that punishes the under."