Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLyon on top, and Kaïl Boudache getting plenty of shots away.
Lyon v AS Monaco prediction
Our model makes Lyon favourites for this Ligue 1 game, giving them a 45% chance of winning. AS Monaco are 29% and the draw is 26%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Lyon 2–1 AS Monaco, the most likely Lyon win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.6 for Lyon and 1.3 for AS Monaco, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is 57% and three or more goals is 55%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Lyon have won two, AS Monaco three. When they last met, it finished Lyon 1–2 Monaco, in Mar 2026. Paris Brunner is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.6 shots and 1.1 on target for AS Monaco, if they start. For cards, Vanderson (AS Monaco) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Lyon have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while AS Monaco have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Lyon lost their most recent match and AS Monaco drew theirs. On shots, our forecast is 16.9 for Lyon and 11.6 for AS Monaco, with 5.8 and 3.9 on target, and corners at 5.6 to 4.1. So we expect Lyon to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Lyon or Draw, Lyon Over 12.5 Shots and Kaïl Boudache 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 39% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/4, or 2.55.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lyon · last 6
AS Monaco · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lyon or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lyon are favoured (45% win probability vs 29% for AS Monaco, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Bawler's predicted score is Lyon 2-1 AS Monaco: the most likely score if Lyon win, which is the likeliest result (45%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lyon 45%, the draw 26% and AS Monaco 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Lyon expecting 1.61 goals and AS Monaco 1.26.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Lyon v AS Monaco line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lyon v AS Monaco?
Lyon or Draw (71%), Lyon Over 12.5 Shots (79%), Kaïl Boudache 2+ Shots (64%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 39% chance, a fair price of 6/4 (2.55). 18+, please gamble responsibly.