FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Levante 5–2 Real BetisMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Levante or draw at 63%. Bawler had Levante at 37%, the draw at 26% and Real Betis at 37%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Levante win
37%
Result
Draw
26%
Real Betis win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Levante's relegation fight collides with Betis's European ambitions, yet xG separation sits at just 0.02, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% call in a fixture where both teams project to score around 1.5 each."