FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 12 October 2026
Levante 3–3 SevillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 12 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Levante or draw at 73%. Bawler had Levante at 46%, the draw at 26% and Sevilla at 28%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Levante win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Sevilla win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Levante or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.