How it finished
Lorient beat Lens 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Lens at 60% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lorient 18%. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 1 was scored. Lens had 18 shots (6 on target) to Lorient's 8 (3), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lens vs Lorient?
Lorient beat Lens 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Lens at 60% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lorient 18%. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 1 was scored. Lens had 18 shots (6 on target) to Lorient's 8 (3), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.5.
What was the final score in Lens vs Lorient?
Lens 0–1 Lorient, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lens 60%, the draw 22% and Lorient 18%.
What were the stats in Lens vs Lorient?
Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.5, Shots 18–8, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 11–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 8–0, Saves 2–6, Fouls 18–6, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 4–1, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Lens vs Lorient?
No. It finished 0–1, so Lens failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lens vs Lorient right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lens to win 60%, it finished Lorient won (18% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Missed.