Lazio vs Monza prediction — Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 14:00 UK
45Lazio win27Draw28Monza win
Full time
3–1

How it finished

Lazio beat Monza 3–1. Lazio had 17 shots (7 on target) to Monza's 14 (6), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.9, so Monza created the better chances and still lost the game.

LazioFull-time statsMonza
65%Possession35%
1.5Expected goals (xG)1.9
17Shots14
7Shots on target6
8Shots inside box10
3Big chances1
7Corners6
5Saves4
10Fouls9
0Offsides2
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
We predicted
1–0
Likeliest score if Lazio win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.6v1.2
2.7 in total
Both teams score
55%
Leans yes
3+ goals
52%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

LazioLazioMonzaMonza
1.6Goals1.2
10.5Shots14.1
3.4On target6.0
3.9Corners4.3
LazioLazioMonzaMonza
0.8Goals0.6
4.7Shots6.9
1.5On target3.0
1.8Corners2.0
LazioLazioMonzaMonza
0.8Goals0.6
5.8Shots7.1
1.9On target3.1
2.1Corners2.3

What we said the chances were

Lazio to score79%
2 or more goals76%
Goal before half-time75%
3 goals or fewer70%
Monza to score70%

First half — what we expected

Lazio
54%
to score before half-time
Monza
45%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

LazioLazioMonzaMonza
33%6+ shots63%
15%8+ shots39%
42%2+ shots on target76%
<10%4+ shots on target35%
79%1+ corners82%
28%3+ corners33%

League position

Monza in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Feb 2025Lazio 5–1 Monza
Nov 2024Monza 0–1 Lazio
May 2024Monza 2–2 Lazio
Sept 2023Lazio 1–1 Monza
Apr 2023Monza 0–2 Lazio
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Lazio form →Monza form →

Common questions

Who won Lazio vs Monza?

Lazio beat Monza 3–1. Lazio had 17 shots (7 on target) to Monza's 14 (6), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.9, so Monza created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Lazio vs Monza?

Lazio 3–1 Monza, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lazio 45%, the draw 27% and Monza 28%.

What were the stats in Lazio vs Monza?

Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.9, Shots 17–14, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 8–10, Big chances 3–1, Corners 7–6, Saves 5–4, Fouls 10–9, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 3–1, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Lazio vs Monza?

Yes — both Lazio and Monza scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.