Lazio beat Monza 3–1. Lazio had 17 shots (7 on target) to Monza's 14 (6), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.9, so Monza created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Lazio beat Monza 3–1. Lazio had 17 shots (7 on target) to Monza's 14 (6), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.9, so Monza created the better chances and still lost the game.
Lazio 3–1 Monza, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lazio 45%, the draw 27% and Monza 28%.
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.9, Shots 17–14, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 8–10, Big chances 3–1, Corners 7–6, Saves 5–4, Fouls 10–9, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 3–1, Red cards 0–1.
Yes — both Lazio and Monza scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.