FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Lazio 2–1 ParmaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lazio or draw at 82%. Bawler had Lazio at 57%, the draw at 26% and Parma at 18%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lazio win
57%
Result
Draw
26%
Parma win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 0.8
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lazio or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lazio's dominance in chance creation—a 0.85 expected-goal advantage—underpins the Lazio or draw forecast at 82%, reflecting their clear control at home against an outmatched Parma side."