FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 23 October 2026
Torino 3–2 MonzaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Monza or draw at 63%. Bawler had Torino at 37%, the draw at 25% and Monza at 37%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
37%
Result
Draw
25%
Monza win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates this forecast at 82%, backed by nearly identical xG totals (Torino 1.55, Monza 1.56) that signal a goalscoring stalemate between evenly matched Serie A sides."