FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Juventus 0–3 LazioMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 82%. Bawler had Juventus at 58%, the draw at 24% and Lazio at 18%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
58%
Draw
24%
Lazio win
18%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.