FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 19 October 2026
Monza 4–0 CagliariMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Monza or draw at 73%. Bawler had Monza at 47%, the draw at 26% and Cagliari at 27%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Monza win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
Cagliari win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 77% forecast confidence, driven by Monza's 0.49 xG advantage and 48% win probability at home against a Cagliari side averaging just 1.16 expected goals."